Climate and Land Use Change: A Synthesis of LURNZ Modelling

Climate matters but    
all climate models lead to    
like outcomes for land.    

Climate Changes, Impacts and Implications (CCII) was a four-year project (ending in September 2016) designed to tackle a broad research question:

• What are the predicted climatic conditions and assessed/potential impacts and implications of climate variability and trends on New Zealand and its regional biophysical environment, the economy and society, at projected critical temporal steps up to 2100?

The CCII project brought together an interdisciplinary research team with experience and modelling capabilities in climate, ecosystems, land and water use, economics and sociocultural research (Ausseil et al. 2017, Rutledge et al. 2017a, Rutledge et al. 2017b).

This note summarises Motu’s contributions to the land-use modelling effort within the project. We completed simulations of land-use change using a version of the Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) model that had been adapted to consider climate change scenarios.